Sugar prices plummeted today, with NY sugar down -2.71% and London sugar down -3.07%. Thailand’s projected 2025/26 sugar crop increase of +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT is contributing to the decline. Pakistan ordered 320,000 MT of sugar, boosting global demand.

Brazil’s increased sugar output by +18% y/y to 3.872 MT in late August, but cumulative 2025-26 output dropped by -1.9% y/y to 26.758 MMT. India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol, potentially exporting 4 MMT. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT.

Expectations of a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season are pressuring prices. India’s strong monsoon may lead to a bumper sugar crop, with a 19% y/y production increase projected. Thailand and Brazil also see higher sugar production, contributing to surplus concerns.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: The Outlook for Higher Thai Sugar Production Hammers Prices