Market expectations for a December interest rate cut have dropped to 53% from 95% a month ago, as Fed officials are split on the best policy path. Shutdown-related data disruptions add complexity to the decision-making process, with some advocating for more cuts and others favoring a pause.

The odds of a quarter-point rate cut in December have fallen to 50%, a stark change from previous expectations. Fed committee members are divided, and disruptions caused by the recent government shutdown further complicate the decision-making process.

Despite a quarter-point rate cut in October, not all committee members were in agreement. Divisions within the committee center on inflation and job market concerns, with data showing mixed signals on economic growth and stability.

With limited data and conflicting economic signals, some FOMC members are advocating for a pause in December. While concerns about weakening job market conditions persist, the lack of official government data leaves uncertainty about the extent of the weakness in the market.

Read more at Morningstar: A December US Fed Interest Rate Cut Is Now a Coin Toss