Diesel prices have seen significant fluctuations, with the benchmark price dropping after four weeks of increases. The average weekly retail diesel price fell 3.7 cents/gallon to $3.831/g, following a 24.8 cts/g increase over four weeks. The spread between crude and diesel in futures markets is narrowing, signaling a potential retreat in diesel prices.

The recent surge in diesel prices was driven by sanctions against Russian oil companies and tight global inventories. However, focus has shifted to a peace plan in the Russia-Ukraine war. The spread between ULSD contracts is narrowing, indicating a possible decrease in diesel prices. Market structure is moving from backwardation to contango.

Models show an oil surplus in the coming years, contrasting with current market trends. Goldman Sachs predicts a decline in oil prices for 2026, with West Texas Intermediate settling at $58.84. Despite this, the company expects prices to rise back to $80/b by the end of 2028. Diesel prices are expected to continue fluctuating in response to global market dynamics.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Benchmark diesel price declines after four weeks of increases