Bitcoin (BTC) is mirroring the 2022 bear market with a 100% correlation in 2025, as November marks one of the worst months for BTC price action. Institutional capital is returning to crypto ETFs as stock inflows increase. Grim BTC price analysis suggests a bearish end to 2025, similar to 2022.

Network economist Timothy Peterson’s analysis reveals a striking 98% correlation between BTC price movements in 2025 and 2022. November’s performance ranks in the bottom 10% since 2015, indicating a challenging month for BTC/USD. A true price rally may not occur until Q1 next year, based on historical data patterns.

Historically, a red November for BTC/USD leads to a similar December outcome with less intense downside. Crypto ETFs are showing signs of improvement, with US equities attracting significant inflows totaling $900 billion since November 2024. Equity funds have seen a remarkable increase compared to other asset classes combined.

US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs indicate a potential end to the institutional crypto sell-off, with Bitcoin ETFs receiving $220 billion in inflows and Ether equivalents taking in $312 million. A macro sentiment shift could lead to a “Santa rally” across risk assets before the year-end, signaling a positive trend for the crypto market.

Read more at Cointelegraph: Bitcoin Has Acted Almost Identical to 2022 Over the Past Six Months