Marvel (MRVL) Earnings: Analysis and Projections

by MarketNewsData

1. Quick Stats

  • YTD: −22.75%
  • Reports: Dec 2 After Close
  • Trend: Long-term bullish, short-term neutral
  • Setup: Low ADX coil, large move likely

2. Key Levels

Resistance

  • 90
  • 94–96
  • 100
  • Above 100 begins the large upside gap zone

Support

  • 83–84
  • 80
  • 74 (200-day SMA)

Compression Zone

  • 84–90

3. Momentum

  • RSI: 56.86, strengthening
  • ADX: 19.36, trendless and ready to expand

4. Earnings Reaction History

MRVL typically reacts with high volatility.
Recent moves include −18.59%, −19.81%, −5.55%, and one strong move of +23.19.

Guidance is more important than the headline numbers.

5. Important News Themes

Bullish

  • Strong AI optics and custom silicon demand
  • Large buyback authorization
  • Insider purchases
  • Analyst targets in the 100–110 range
  • Long-term AI demand improving

Bearish

  • Valuation concerns despite being down on the year
  • Margin pressure
  • Heavy hyperscaler dependence
  • Competitive pressure from AVGO
  • Commentary suggesting it is still not a buy at current levels

Overall expectations remain elevated.

6. Gap Analysis

Upside Gap
A major upside gap from March is still open.
Price collapsed from above 100 down into the 60s, leaving a large unfilled window.
MRVL is now approaching the lower edge of that gap if it can break above 90 and sustain momentum.

Downside Gap
A portion of the August earnings gap-down remains open in the low-60s but is far below current price.

Pattern
MRVL has a history of gapping down on earnings and then grinding higher for several weeks afterward.

7. Pre-Earnings Bias

Slightly bearish to neutral.
A bullish shift occurs only if the stock breaks and holds above 90.
Expectations are high and downside risk increases if the guide is not strong.

8. Pre-Earnings Trigger Map

Bullish Trigger
Break above 90 with volume
Targets 94, 96, 100, then potentially into the upside gap zone

Bearish Trigger
Break below 83–84
Targets 80, then 74

No-Trade Zone
84–90

Capitulation Zone
74–80

9. Post-Earnings Quick Playbook

Breakout
Open above 90 and hold
Targets 94, 96, 100

Spike Reversal
Gap into 94–96 and reject
Targets 90, 87.5, 85

Breakdown
Open below 83
Targets 80, 76, 74

Capitulation Bounce
Flush into 74–80
Targets 80, 83, 84.5

Compression
Open 84–90
Wait for break

10. Final View

MRVL is coiled underneath major resistance.
There is a large upside gap that becomes active above 100.
Earnings have a bearish skew historically, but the chart shows recovery strength after flushes.
Bias remains slightly bearish to neutral unless the stock clears 90 with conviction.

This analysis is AI-assisted and for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making trading decisions.

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