Micron Technology (MU) Faces Critical Support Test
1. Trend Overview
MU is in a long-term uptrend with short-term corrective pressure.
- Recent peak: ~$250 (mid-Nov)
- Current price: $207.37
- The stock has pulled back sharply but remains above all major long-term trend markers.
Interpretation:
The parabolic late-summer rally has cooled, and MU is now in the first meaningful correction since July.
2. Moving Averages
50-day EMA / 50-day SMA Zone (Short-term Trend)
- EMA50 & SMA50 show support clustered at $200–205.
- Price is currently sitting on this band.
Implication:
This is the make or break support for MU’s short-term structure.
100-day EMA (Medium-term Trend)
- EMA100 rising steadily.
- Sits around $180–185.
Implication:
If $200 fails, this is the next major trend support.
200-day SMA (Long-term Trend)
- SMA200 is rising gradually around $127–130.
Implication:
The long-term uptrend remains intact regardless of near-term volatility.
3. Momentum Readings
RSI
- Current RSI ≈ 38.
- RSI fell from extreme overbought levels (80–90) in September.
Implication:
Momentum has reset; MU is not oversold, but the prior euphoria has fully unwound.
ADX
- ADX peaked above 50 during the surge.
- Now corrected down to ~24.
Implication:
Trend strength has weakened → MU is in a cooling / consolidation phase, not trending strongly right now.
4. Volume Profile
- Volume surged in October during the climb to $250.
- Pullback came with elevated but declining volume → typical of a trend cooling rather than a trend reversal.
5. Support & Resistance Levels
Key Support
| Zone | Meaning |
|---|---|
| $200–205 | Primary support. 50-day zone + prior breakout. |
| $185–190 | Major October base. If $200 fails, MU likely drifts here. |
| $165–170 | Deep correction target; September breakout area. |
Key Resistance
| Zone | Meaning |
|---|---|
| $225–230 | First bounce zone / short-term seller wall. |
| $245–255 | Recent highs; would need high volume to reclaim. |
6. Overall Setup Assessment
Current Condition
- Long-term bullish
- Medium-term healthy
- Short-term corrective
- RSI reset
- ADX trending lower
- Price sitting directly on 50-day support
This is a textbook correction inside a larger uptrend, unless $200 breaks.
7. Actionable Outlook
Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability if $200 holds)
- Watch for stabilization above $200.
- RSI moves >45.
- Bounce target: $225, then $245–250.
Triggers:
- 2–3 green candles reclaiming $212–215
- ADX flattening/turning up
Bearish Scenario (If $200 breaks)
- Expect fast drop to $185–190.
- If selling accelerates and RSI dips <32 → extended correction.
- Deep support: $168–170.
Triggers:
- High-volume close < $200
- RSI falling under 35
8. Bottom Line
Micron remains a strong long-term winner, but the stock is in a controlled mid-trend correction.
The entire near-term direction depends on the $200–205 support band.
- Above $205 → constructive consolidation → retest of $225–250
- Below $200 → multi-week pullback toward $185
This is the most important price level on the chart.
Disclaimer:
This AI-generated technical analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always verify independently before making decisions.