Trend | Momentum | Key Levels | Pattern | 7–30 Day Outlook

1. Trend Overview

Short-Term Trend → Bearish

Price has broken below the 50-day SMA ($110.41 → resistance).
Price is well above the 200-day SMA ($58.95 support) → long-term trend still bullish.

Medium/Long-Term Trend → Bullish

The 200-day SMA remains in an uptrend.
Price is still +40% above the 200-day, even after correction.

Conclusion:
NBIS is undergoing a correction inside a longer-term uptrend.

2. Momentum Indicators

Using your table:

RSI Levels

RSI (20–50 day windows): 49 → 56 → 66 → 100 (longer windows)
Short-term RSI is neutral to slightly bearish (45–52).
Longer RSI remains elevated due to the +181.81% YTD gain, even though short-term RSI has cooled.

Interpretation:
Short-term washout has occurred, but not deeply oversold.

Williams %R

Ranges from –40% to –67% → bearish momentum but not extreme oversold (oversold = below –80%).

ADX

ADX (20–50 day): 25–30 → moderately strong trend (the trend is currently down).
ADX above 30 on 50-day signals the downtrend has momentum.

Volatility (STD)

STD spiked from 7 → 18 → 29 on longer periods → volatility expansion, matching a pullback after a parabolic run.

3. Price Structure

A) Recent Breakdown

From the zoomed charts:

NBIS failed at $130–$140, a clear multi-top zone.
Hard rejection → selling accelerated.
Breakdown below the 50-day SMA ($110) confirmed momentum shift.
Price bounced twice near $84–$86, forming short-term support.

This is a classic post-parabolic retrace.

4. Key Support & Resistance Levels

Immediate Support

Level	Why it matters
$84–$86	Recent multi-day support / buyers stepped in twice
$75–$78	Minor shelf from September base
$58.95 (200-day SMA)	Major trend support, strongest level on the chart

📌 The most important level long-term = $58–$60

Immediate Resistance

Level	Why it matters
$110–$112	50-day SMA + breakdown area
$118–$120	Failed bounce / supply zone
$130–$135	Major top + triple failure zone

If price does NOT break above $110–$112, short-term trend stays bearish.

5. Pattern Formation

NBIS appears to be forming a Falling Channel / Controlled Pullback after a parabolic move.

This is not a topping pattern (no head-and-shoulders, no double-top structure), but a classic momentum reset after an extreme YTD run.

If $84 breaks → risk of deeper pullback to $75 or $60.
If $110 breaks → trend reversal confirmed.

6. Volume Analysis

High volume spikes in early Nov during the selloff → distribution.
Volume is decreasing on recent candles → selling pressure easing.
Not seeing capitulation yet → a second leg down is still possible unless price closes back above $110.

7. Sentiment Overlay

Nebius fundamentals are ultra-strong (355% YoY rev growth, Microsoft & Meta megadeals, 800 MW–1 GW expansion).
But valuation is lofty (106x sales) and the correction likely reflects:

Parabolic run up → natural unwind
High expectations priced in
Post-earnings cooling
Broader AI-sector volatility

This fits the technical retracement.

8. 7–30 Day Outlook

Next 7 Days

Base Case (most likely):
→ Price chops between $84–$110, consolidating.

Bullish scenario:
→ Close above $110 targets $118.

Bearish scenario:
→ Breakdown under $84 targets $75, then $60.

Next 30 Days

Probability-weighted view:

Bullish Reversal (35%)
- Breaks above $110
- Moves toward $120–$125
- Trend resumes up
Sideways Consolidation (40%)
- Range between $84–$110
- Typical after a parabolic run
- Volume fades, volatility drops
Deep Correction (25%)
- Breaks $84
- Tests $75 then $60 (200-day SMA)

Given high ADX and momentum shift, sideways/bounce is more likely than immediate trend resumption.

9. Technical Summary

Bullish if:

Closes above $110
RSI > 55
Volume expands on green days

Bearish if:

Breaks below $84
Price stays under the 50-day SMA
Williams %R drops below –80%

Most Important Levels

Support: $86 → $78 → $60
Resistance: $110 → $118 → $130

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

(Based on the swing low around ~$60 and swing high ~$140)

Support Levels

$83.04 – Recent multi-day support zone (validated on chart)
$75.17 – Prior consolidation shelf
$74.42 – Deep retracement support (aligns with 38.2–50% fib cluster)

Resistance Levels

$110.41 – 50-day SMA (most important resistance)
$118–$120 – Failed bounce / supply zone
$127.84
$129.12
$130.82 – Triple-top resistance and major ceiling

(The $127–131 region is the previous top and remains the strongest resistance.)

Final Take

NBIS remains a long-term uptrend stock undergoing a healthy, high-volatility correction after a +269% YTD run.

Short-term trend is bearish, but structural trend remains strongly bullish above the 200-day.

The battle line is very clear:

$84 = must hold (short-term bulls)

$110 = must reclaim (bulls regain control)

$60 = long-term line in the sand

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated with AI assistance and is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.