November 17, 2025 — Market Close

1. Price & Trend Position (Post-Split Levels)

NFLX Price: ~$110
50-Day SMA: ~$113
200-Day SMA: ~$117

➡️ NFLX is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
This places the stock in a short-term and medium-term weak position, regardless of the earlier inverse head & shoulders setup.

📊 2. Pattern Status

Even with the SMA weakness, the inverse head & shoulders you identified earlier still exists, but probabilities have changed.

Split-Adjusted Pattern Levels

Left Shoulder: ~$119
Head: ~$108
Right Shoulder: ~$110–111
Neckline: $113.50

➡️ Pattern remains technically valid, but a breakout is not likely unless the price reclaims the 50-day SMA.

🧭 3. Key Levels

Support

$110.00 — current level
$108.00 — head of pattern
$105.00 — critical base support
$100.00 — psychological

Resistance

$113.50 — neckline + 50-day SMA
$117.00 — 200-day SMA
$120.00 — post-earnings supply zone

📈 4. Market Context: S&P 500 Weakness Increases Risk

The macro backdrop shifted bearish today, which directly affects NFLX’s probability distribution.

S&P 500 Key Facts (Today):

Close: 6,672.41 (-0.92%)
Closed below 6,700 for the first time
6,650 is the trend-break confirmation level
Uptrend now at high risk

➡️ If S&P breaks below 6,650, NFLX is likely to lose the $110 and $108 levels.

➡️ If S&P reclaims 6,700, NFLX’s bullish setup improves significantly.

🔺 5. Bullish Case

A bullish scenario requires two conditions:

Condition 1 — S&P closes back above 6,700

This would signal a failed breakdown in the broader market.

Condition 2 — NFLX reclaims $113.50

This is the neckline and the 50-day SMA.

If both trigger, upside targets:

$117 (200-day SMA)
$120
$125 (measured move of inverse H&S = +10%)

Probability rises sharply if volume exceeds 20M on the breakout.

🔻 6. Bearish Case

The bearish case strengthens because NFLX is below both SMAs and the S&P is breaking support.

Bearish triggers:

Close below $110
S&P 500 breaks below 6,650

If triggered → downside targets:

$108
$105
$100

If $108 fails, the inverse H&S pattern is fully invalidated.

🧭 7. Direction From Here

NFLX is at a critical inflection point.

Below both SMAs = short-term bearish bias.
Inverse H&S still present = medium-term recovery potential.
S&P breakdown warning dramatically increases downside risk.

Most likely next steps:

If market weak tomorrow → NFLX drifts toward $108–105.
If market rebounds → NFLX retests $113.50 quickly.

🧾 8. Summary

NFLX closed near $110, now trading below both the 50-day ($113) and 200-day ($117) moving averages, putting it in a technically weak position post-split. The inverse head & shoulders pattern remains intact, but requires a breakout above $113.50 to trigger. Market risk has increased after the S&P 500 broke below 6,700; a further breakdown below 6,650 would likely push NFLX toward $108–105. Conversely, a reclaim of 6,700 in the S&P, combined with a breakout above $113.50, would signal renewed upside potential toward $117–$125.