Earnings Date: Nov 19, 2025 (AMC)
Last Price: $190.17
Volume: 186.6M
52-Week Range: $86.62 – $212.19

1. Earnings Setup

Upcoming Quarter (Q3 FY26 – ending Oct 27, 2025)

Revenue Estimate: $54.94B
YoY Growth Estimate: +56.62%
EPS Estimate: $1.24
YoY EPS Growth Expected: +0.43

Recent Earnings Pattern (Trailing 6 Quarters)

NVDA has:

Beat revenue estimates 6 out of 6 quarters
Beat EPS estimates 6 out of 6 quarters
YoY revenue growth has ranged 55% → 122%
EPS YoY growth has ranged 20% → 262%

Recent Actuals:

Aug 27, 2025:
- Revenue $46.74B vs $46.05B est (Beat)
- EPS $1.05 vs $1.01 est (Beat)
- YoY revenue growth: +55.60%
Prior quarters:
- May 2025: $44.06B (Beat)
- Feb 2025: $39.33B (Beat)
- Nov 2024: $35.08B (Beat)
- Aug 2024: $30.04B (Beat)
- May 2024: $26.04B (Beat)

Conclusion:
NVDA consistently beats, but the beat margin has narrowed.
The market now requires revenue acceleration + strong forward guidance to justify upside.

2. Key Insights From Last Conference Call (Q2 FY26)

Strongest Drivers

Revenue $46.7B, powered by:
- +56% YoY Data Center growth
- Multiple AI platform transitions
CEO Jensen Huang projects $3–$4 trillion in global AI infrastructure spending this decade.
Positioning for reasoning agentic AI — heavy compute → continues GPU demand cycle.

Guidance Provided:

Next-quarter revenue forecast: $54B
Gross margins projected at 73.3–73.5%

Challenges:

China licensing restrictions affecting H20
Supply chain geopolitics remain a wild card
NVDA must continuously innovate to retain share against AMD, Intel, and custom silicon

Capital Allocation

$60B share buyback authorization signals confidence + ongoing EPS support

Fundamental Summary:
NVDA remains the uncontested leader in AI compute, with fundamentals stronger than any other mega-cap.
But expectations are extremely high, making earnings reaction more volatile.

3. Technical Analysis

Trend

Above 50-day SMA ($185.61)
Above 200-day SMA ($151.19)
→ Long-term uptrend intact

Short-term Trend: Sideways / Weak

ADX 17.39 → weak momentum
RSI 49.4 → neutral
Williams %R –66 → mild bearish but not oversold
→ NVDA is coiling ahead of earnings

Support Levels

$186.80–187.00
$183.00
$180.50
$176.00 (critical multi-month floor)

Resistance Levels

$191.00
$193.80
$195.70 (key breakout)
$200.00
$212.19 (52-week high)

Pattern

A tight falling wedge inside a rising long-term channel
→ These typically resolve bullish if earnings support continuation

Volatility

Std Dev (14-day): 6.66
NVDA historical earnings move: 8–12% in either direction

4. Integrated View: Fundamentals + Technicals + History

Bullish Case (Higher Probability If Guidance > $54.94B)

NVDA has never missed in two years
Data center demand remains dominant
Gross margins are still in the 73% range, showing pricing power
Share buybacks provide EPS support
Technical structure supports a breakout above $195–200
RSI neutral → room for upside expansion

If bullish:
NVDA likely targets $200 → $212 → $225

Bearish Case (Triggered if China commentary worsens or guidance is soft)

Market sensitivity is highest around:

China export restrictions
Rubin platform transition timing
AI spending sustainability

If NVDA disappoints even slightly, downside levels are:

$186 → $183 → $180
$176 is major support
Break of $176 = correction toward $160–165

Bearish probability rises if revenue guide comes in < $54B.

5. Earnings Playbook

Current Market Positioning:

NVDA is neutral, balanced, and coiled — perfect setup for a large candle post earnings.

My Actionable Read (Based on full data)

Short term (1–7 days):

Neutral → Slightly Bullish bias
Stock is above 50-day and 200-day MAs
RSI is reset
Fundamentals strong
Buybacks offer a price cushion

But the actual move depends on guidance > execution.

Actionable Triggers

Bullish Trigger

✔ Close above $195.70
→ Confirms breakout
→ Targets: $200 → $212 → $225

Bearish Trigger

✔ Close below $183
→ Confirms earnings disappointment
→ Targets: $180 → $176 → $160

Risk Management

Watch the first 30–45 minutes of post-earnings trading
NVDA historically overreacts then trends

6. Final Summary

NVDA enters earnings with:

Fundamentals:

Exceptional revenue growth
Strong data center demand
Massive AI capex tailwinds
Highly optimistic CEO tone
$60B buyback support

Technicals:

Long-term bullish
Short-term neutral/coiling
Breakout levels tightly defined

Earnings Influence:

This will be a binary, high-volatility event with broader AI-sector implications.

Upper Path:

Strong guide → $195 → $200 → $212

Lower Path:

Soft guide or China issues → $183 → $180 → $176

Recent Analyst Commentary

Susquehanna raised their NVDA price target from $210 to $230, describing the company as having “one of the largest opportunities ahead” in the entire AI semiconductor ecosystem.
Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform and lifted their target from $225 to $265, noting that demand for Nvidia’s AI accelerators remains “extremely strong” with no signs of slowing.
Wells Fargo (Aaron Rakers) reaffirmed Overweight and increased their target from $220 to $265, highlighting Nvidia’s dominant positioning across the AI compute stack and continued leadership in data-center silicon.
Broad Street consensus remains firmly “Strong Buy”, with many analysts citing continued momentum in data-center revenue and the company’s early leadership in agentic AI models.
Some market commentators warn that despite strong fundamentals, NVDA may face limited near-term upside due to heavy options positioning and gamma resistance around the $200 level, which could create a “sell-the-news” reaction even if results beat expectations.

Disclaimer: This is an AI-assisted analysis for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.