Sugar prices rose today, with NY sugar at a 2.5-week high and London sugar at a 1-week high due to short covering. India may export less sugar than expected, with a proposal to allow 1.5 MMT exports in 2025/26. The global sugar surplus estimate was raised to 8.7 MMT.

Brazil’s record sugar output forecasted at 45 MMT and a rise in sugar exports from India to 31 MMT undercut sugar prices. Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in October rose by +1.3% y/y. Datagro projected Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production to reach 44 MMT.

India’s larger sugar crop forecasted at 34.9 MMT due to abundant monsoon rains. Thailand’s sugar crop is expected to increase by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. The International Sugar Organization predicted a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season.

The USDA projected global sugar production to increase by +4.7% y/y to 189.318 MMT in 2025/26. Global sugar ending stocks are expected to rise by +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. Brazil’s sugar production is forecasted to reach 44.7 MMT, while India’s sugar production may increase by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT in 2025/26.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Climb on Prospects of Smaller Indian Sugar Exports