Sugar prices rose on Friday, with NY world sugar #11 up 0.82% and London ICE white sugar #5 up 0.98%. The increase was due to pre-weekend short covering, with support from India considering raising ethanol prices to divert cane crushing to ethanol production. Weakness in the Brazilian real limited the upside.

India announced it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in 2025/26, below previous estimates. The International Sugar Organization forecasted a 1.625 million MT surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% y/y to 181.8 million MT.

Record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices, with Conab raising its Brazil 2025/26 production estimate to 45 MMT. Signs of a larger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are also affecting prices. The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative, with abundant monsoon rains leading to a projected bumper crop.

Thailand’s sugar crop is expected to increase by 5% y/y to 10.5 MMT in 2025/26, following a +14% y/y rise in production in 2024/25. The USDA projected record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, with Brazil and India leading the way. Thailand is the third-largest sugar producer and second-largest exporter globally.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Finish Higher on Pre-Weekend Short Covering