U.S. government long bond futures may rally due to unforeseen events causing a flight to quality, potentially lifting bond prices and lowering long-term yields. The long bond futures and TLT ETF remain within trading ranges as the debt market prepares to move into 2026.

The 30-Year U.S. Government Treasury Bond futures entered a bear market from the March 2020 high to an October 2023 low. Since then, they have traded sideways closer to the 2023 low. Interest rates have stayed elevated, despite Fed rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.

TLT ETF mirrors long-term U.S. government bond futures, trading within a range in 2024 and 2025. The bullish case for bonds in 2026 includes expected Fed rate cuts and potential market volatility triggering U.S. government bond buying.

Daily charts show a bullish trend for long bond futures and TLT ETF since May 2025. Inflation above the Fed’s 2% target adds downside pressure on long-term U.S. rates. Moody’s lowered U.S. debt rating in 2025, impacting bond market sentiment.

Technical resistance levels for long bond futures and TLT ETF are significant. Bullish and bearish factors are influencing long-term U.S. interest rates. Sideways trends may lead to substantial price moves when resistance or support levels are broken.

The path of U.S. long-term interest rates in 2026 remains uncertain. External events may determine price action. The Trump administration’s initiatives and upcoming mid-term elections could impact interest rates. Sideways trading may continue in late 2025 with a potential for lower rates in 2026.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Where are U.S. Government Bonds Heading in 2026?