Crude oil and gasoline prices are up today due to the decline in the dollar index and stalled US-Russian talks on ending the war in Ukraine. However, gains are limited by a bearish EIA inventory report showing unexpected increases in crude, gasoline, and distillate supplies.

Geopolitical risks, such as Russian threats against ships and US airspace, are supporting crude prices. Reduced crude exports from Russia due to attacks and sanctions are also underpinning prices, as well as OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus.

Recent reports show a rise in crude oil stored on tankers, OPEC revising global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, and a bearish weekly EIA report with unexpected increases in crude, gasoline, and distillate stockpiles. US production estimates have also been raised.

The latest EIA report revealed unexpected rises in crude, gasoline, and distillate stockpiles, with Cushing crude supplies falling. US inventories are below the seasonal 5-year average, and production remains steady. The number of active US oil rigs has fallen to a 4-year low.

Baker Hughes reported a sharp decline in the number of active US oil rigs over the past 2.5 years, reaching a 4-year low of 407 rigs. On the date of publication, the author did not have any positions in the securities mentioned.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Rises on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks