The US Federal Reserve’s influence on the crypto market is set to continue in 2026 due to divisions among policymakers. Three interest rate cuts in 2025 brought rates down to 3.5% to 3.75%, with projections indicating only one additional cut in 2026. Key factors include labor market data and inflation trajectory.

The Fed’s next meeting in January will set the tone for the quarter, with a 20% probability of a rate cut, rising to 45% in mid-March. The December 2025 dot plot shows significant division among policymakers on future interest rates, creating uncertainty for markets in 2026.

Analysts predict two rate cuts in 2026 due to internal divisions at the Fed. CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko expects one cut in March, with a gradual easing cycle throughout the year. Different scenarios could impact the Fed’s decisions, affecting crypto markets accordingly.

Hope for a bullish market in 2026 has been toned down, with the Fed’s cautious approach disappointing some. A new chair could shift the Fed’s stance on rate policy and support risk assets like crypto. Lower interest rates tend to drive investors towards higher-risk assets like crypto, boosting demand and prices.

Investors are closely watching the Fed’s decisions as they impact the crypto market’s momentum. With projections indicating only one more rate cut in 2026, the upcoming meetings in early 2026 will be crucial for setting the tone for the year. Divisions among policymakers and economic data will influence future decisions.

Read more at Cointelegraph: Federal Reserve 2026 Rate Cuts and Crypto Market Impact