In Q3 2025, Tesla broke records with 497,000 deliveries driven by buyers rushing to claim the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expired. Analysts project a 14% to 19% decline in Q4 deliveries due to the credit expiration, with U.S. EV market share dropping from over 11% to 6%.

The expiration of the federal EV tax credit led to a significant sales slowdown in the EV sector, with U.S. market share decreasing. Analysts predict Tesla’s Q4 deliveries to decrease by 14% to 19%, indicating weaker underlying demand and potential year-over-year declines.

Competition in the EV market is intensifying as legacy automakers shift to hybrids and global rivals expand. Tesla faces pricing pressure with its plug-in EV models as the market share drops to 1% in Q4. Analysts suggest caution as consensus estimates point to a 15% decline in Q4 deliveries for Tesla.

Despite a 14% rise in Tesla stock year-to-date, expectations of declining sales for the second year in a row may be changing investor views. Tesla shifts focus to growth areas like energy storage and AI advancements, signaling potential high-margin expansion beyond vehicle sales.

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Read more at Yahoo Finance: Is Tesla Warning Investors About What’s to Come?