Sugar prices rose on Tuesday with NY world sugar #11 up +1.49% and London ICE white sugar #5 up +1.97%. European sugar producers plan to cut acreage by 10% for 2026-27 after a 10% drop this season. India’s sugar production surged +43% y/y to 4.11 MMT in Oct-Nov, with 428 mills crushing cane. Brazil’s sugar output is expected to hit 45 MMT for 2025/26, with a rise in production of +8.7% y/y in the first half of November. India’s food ministry is considering increasing ethanol prices for blending, which could reduce sugar supplies. India plans to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in 2025/26, below previous estimates of 2 MMT, due to late rain impacting production. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.625 million MT surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% y/y to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26. Sugar prices have been under pressure due to higher output in Brazil and a projected global surplus, with Czarnikow estimating an 8.7 MMT surplus for 2025/26. India’s sugar production is forecasted to increase by +18.8% y/y to 31 MMT, with a cut in sugar used for ethanol. The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for prices, as abundant monsoon rains may result in a bumper crop. Thailand’s sugar crop is expected to rise by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT, following a +14% y/y increase in 2024/25. The USDA projects a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, with ending stocks rising by +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. Brazil’s sugar production is forecasted to increase by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT, while India’s production is expected to rise by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, and Thailand’s by +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Projections of Smaller EU Sugar Acreage Boosts Sugar Prices