Sugar prices are down today, with March NY world sugar #11 down -1.06% and March London ICE white sugar #5 down -0.75%. The drop is attributed to higher Indian sugar output and a decrease in crude oil prices. Indian sugar production from Oct 1-Dec 15 rose +28% y/y to 7.8 MMT.

Crude oil weakness is lowering ethanol prices, prompting sugar mills to focus on sugar production. Brazil’s record sugar output forecast of 45 MMT and a 8.7% y/y rise in Center-South sugar output in the first half of November contribute to the bearish outlook.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26 due to increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. The ISO forecasts a +3.2% y/y rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT. Czarnikow also raised its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT.

India’s sugar production estimate of 31 MMT for 2025/26, up +18.8% y/y, and reduced sugar used for ethanol production may allow for increased sugar exports. The forecast for abundant monsoon rains in India leading to a bumper sugar crop raises concerns for sugar prices.

India’s plan to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, below earlier estimates of 2 MMT, supports sugar prices. However, the outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand, with a projected +5% y/y increase to 10.5 MMT, is bearish for prices.

The USDA projects global 2025/26 sugar production to reach a record 189.318 MMT, with human sugar consumption increasing to 177.921 MMT. Brazil’s sugar production is forecasted to rise by 2.3% y/y to 44.7 MMT, India’s production by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, and Thailand’s production by +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Decline on Higher Indian Production and Weakness in Crude