Sugar prices are mixed today, with NY world sugar #11 up slightly and London ICE white sugar #5 down. Indian sugar production has surged, with a 43% increase in October-November to 4.11 MMT. Brazil’s sugar output is also rising, with estimates at 45 MMT for 2025/26, leading to a bearish outlook for prices.

India’s food ministry is considering increasing the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, potentially reducing sugar supplies. Support for sugar prices comes from India’s decision to allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than previous estimates. However, the International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.625 MMT surplus in 2025-26.

Global sugar supplies are expected to be robust, leading to lower sugar prices. An 8.7 MMT surplus is forecasted for 2025/26, with increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan contributing to the surplus. Signs of a larger sugar crop in India are also affecting prices, with an estimated 31 MMT production for 2025/26.

The outlook for higher sugar exports from India due to abundant monsoon rains is negative for prices. India’s 2025/26 sugar production is projected to increase by 19% y/y to 34.9 MMT. Thailand’s sugar production is also expected to rise, further weighing on prices. The USDA predicts record global sugar production and consumption for 2025/26.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Mixed as India Ramps Up Sugar Output