ASML Holding is set to release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report on Jan. 28. Investors are keen to see the company’s guidance for the coming years, with revenue estimates for 2026 possibly being revised upward.

Analysts model EUR 42b in revenue for ASML in 2027, a 21.4% increase from 2026, driven by increased foundry investment from TSMC, ASML’s higher capex, and capacity additions from memory makers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

TSMC’s massive $54 billion capex guidance could benefit ASML in 2027, as orders received in Q1 and Q2 2026 may still contribute to 2026 revenue. ASML’s longer lead times compared to peers like BESI and ASMI are expected to play a role in this.

Investors are eagerly awaiting ASML’s quarterly order book release, hoping it will reduce volatility in shares during 2026 by shifting focus to longer-term performance rather than quarterly results. Continued growth in AI spending is expected to benefit ASML in the coming years.

TSMC’s increased capex for new technology development, such as Nvidia’s new GPUs, indicates real demand in the market. This could lead to new orders for ASML as TSMC needs to develop new production capacity to meet the demand for advanced technologies.

Read more at Morningstar: Ahead of Earnings, Is ASML Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?