Bitcoin may have entered a bear market in early November, according to CryptoQuant’s head of research. The key signal confirming this shift is Bitcoin’s drop below its one-year moving average. A potential bear market bottom is expected between $56,000 and $60,000.

The majority of signals behind CryptoQuant’s bull score index have been flashing warnings. The index tracks metrics like network activity, investor profitability, and Bitcoin demand. The most decisive signal is Bitcoin falling below its one-year moving average, marking a transition into bearish conditions.

Bitcoin’s recent price action supports the view of a bear market. After peaking at around $126,080 in October, it ended the year below its opening level. If this is a bear market, it challenges expectations for strong growth in 2026. The market may still be finding a bottom in the $56,000 to $60,000 range.

Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to drift back towards realized levels during downturns. A decline to $56,000 to $60,000 would represent a drawdown of roughly 55% from its all-time high. This cycle looks structurally different, with the absence of major systemic collapses unlike previous bear markets.

Institutional participants, including ETFs and long-term allocators, are playing a growing role in the market. They tend to buy steadily and are less likely to exit positions during downturns. This shift, combined with a deeper pool of market participants and more established infrastructure, could help cushion the downside even if bearish conditions persist.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin May Already Be Two Months Into a Bear Market: CryptoQuant