Chinese independent refiners are expected to shift to heavy crude from sources like Iran in the absence of Venezuelan shipments post U.S. sanctions. This may impact Venezuelan supply to China, a major buyer of discounted sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. China imported 389,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil in 2025.

Venezuelan crude aboard ships in Asia can cover roughly 75 days of Chinese demand, limiting immediate need for alternatives. Teapots may turn to Russian and Iranian supply in March and April, with options like Canada, Brazil, Iraq, and Colombia available. Iranian Heavy crude is priced at a discount to ICE Brent.

President Trump announced an agreement for $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude exports to the U.S. after the capture of President Maduro. This deal is likely to impact Venezuelan supply to China, affecting independent refiners’ access to discounted heavy barrels. At least a dozen sanctioned vessels carrying 12 million barrels of crude and fuel have left Venezuelan waters.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Chinese refiners expected to replace Venezuelan oil with Iranian crude, traders say