Crude oil and gasoline prices rose today due to better-than-expected US economic news and anticipated buying of crude futures for annual index rebalancing. The rally was tempered by a stronger dollar and the US lifting some sanctions on Venezuelan crude. Morgan Stanley predicts a global oil surplus, impacting prices.

A positive labor market and strong economic data boosted energy demand and crude prices. However, concerns emerged as Saudi Arabia cut the price of Arab Light crude for February delivery. Morgan Stanley lowered its crude price forecast for Q1 and Q2, anticipating a global oil surplus mid-year.

OPEC+ confirmed it will pause production increases in Q1 2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers have limited crude exports, impacting global oil supplies. The IEA projected a record crude surplus for 2026. OPEC revised its global oil market estimates to a surplus.

US crude inventories were below the seasonal average, while gasoline and distillate inventories varied. Crude oil production slightly decreased. Active US oil rigs slightly increased, recovering from a recent low. Overall, the energy market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply disruptions and economic indicators.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Rallies on Stronger Energy Demand and Index Buying of Crude Futures