Bitcoin may be entering a bear market, with the one-year moving average confirming the downturn, according to CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno. The bearish trend began in early November and has not yet recovered. The bull score index uses indicators like network activity and Bitcoin demand to measure market conditions on a scale of 0 to 100.

Bitcoin’s price peaked at $126,080 in October before ending the year lower, starting 2025 at $93,000. Analysts predicted growth for 2026, but Moreno predicts a bear market bottom around $56,000 to $60,000. Past bear markets have seen significant drawdowns that take years to recover from.

Moreno predicts that the bear market bottom will likely fall within the $56,000 to $60,000 range over the next year. He notes that previous bear markets have seen prices drop to the realized price, which represents the average price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their assets.

Despite the bear market, this downturn may be less intense than previous ones, with a 55% drawdown from the all-time high of Bitcoin. Moreno views this as a positive, compared to the 70-80% drawdowns seen in past bear markets. The current market is more stable, with no high-profile collapses and large institutional players accumulating crypto assets.

Institutional players are steadily buying into the market, adding to the stability of the current bear market. Unlike past downturns, there are more reliable companies and projects in the sector, with a larger pool of traders and investors willing to participate. Moreno highlights the structural changes that have contributed to a more stable market environment.

Read more at Cointelegraph: Crypto Bear Market Began in November: CryptoQuant