Cardano price is down 2% over the past 24 hours, trending lower since January 6, but remains flat over the past week. ADA is trading inside a falling wedge pattern, defending the $0.383 support zone. While momentum data suggests stability, on-chain data shows long-term holders distributing while short-term holders are absorbing supply. Derivatives positioning reveals a strong bullish bias, increasing downside risk. ADA must close above $0.437 to revive the bullish case, or risk tilting lower with a break below $0.351. The next move depends on how long speculative capital remains interested.

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