Retail traders may have an advantage over Wall Street elites with Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock. The capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro has affected the oil market, potentially creating a more competitive market for feedstocks. MPC has seen a 2% increase in the past five sessions, with unusual options activity pointing towards controlled upside.

Black-Scholes-derived calculations may not fully capture MPC stock’s true risk structure, potentially leaving room for retail traders to extract alpha. Wall Street models price risk monotonically, but data suggests that MPC stock may have higher probability of profit than initially perceived, especially in the $180 to $195 range.

Setting up a high-risk, high-reward wager on MPC stock, particularly the 190/195 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, could offer significant payout potential if the stock rises through the $195 strike at expiration. The breakeven price at $191.50 adds credibility to the trade, limiting probability decay beyond $195 for a potential 233.33% maximum payout.

Read more at Barchart: Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Call Options Could Be Significantly Mispriced in Your Favor