Rio Tinto’s iron ore business saw a 9% increase in fourth-quarter Pilbara iron ore volumes, reaching 79 million metric tons. Full-year total for 2025 matched 2024. Copper and aluminum volumes remained steady compared to the previous year. Shares rose by 2% due to strong iron ore performance, beating volume estimates for main commodities.

Despite a 3% below-forecast average realized iron ore price of USD 90 per metric ton, Rio Tinto’s EBITDA for 2025 is expected to be around USD 23 billion. 2026 volume guidance remains the same at 280 million metric tons. The fair value estimate of AUD 125 per share for Rio Tinto is maintained, with shares currently overvalued by about 20%.

Earnings per share for 2025 are projected to be USD 6.55 with a dividend per share of USD 3.93. Pilbara unit cash costs are expected to rise by 5% to USD 23.80 per metric ton due to inflation. Shares offer a 3.9% fully franked forward yield.2026 volume guidance remains the same at 280 million metric tons, in line with 2025.

Read more at Morningstar: Rio Tinto: Strong Final Quarter Sees Iron Ore Recover Much of the Volumes Lost in 2025