Sugar prices are down today due to increased production in India and Brazil. India’s sugar output is up +22% y/y, while Brazil’s sugar output rose by +0.9% y/y. Covrig Analytics raised the global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT for 2025/26, but projects a decrease to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27.

India’s sugar production estimate has been raised to 31 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The country may boost sugar exports due to lower ethanol production estimates. India’s food ministry allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, impacting prices.

Brazil is projected to have record sugar output of 45 MMT for 2025/26, causing a bearish outlook for sugar prices. Safras & Mercado forecasts a decrease in sugar production for 2026/27. The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.625 million MT surplus for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Rising Sugar Output in India Undercuts Prices