ExxonMobil (XOM) expects a decline in Q4 2025 upstream earnings due to weak oil prices. Natural gas prices may impact earnings positively or negatively. However, the company anticipates an increase in refining business earnings due to lower oil prices.

Despite the short-term challenges, ExxonMobil’s long-term outlook remains strong with advantageous assets in Permian and Guyana. The company aims to increase total production by the end of the decade. Low breakeven costs in these regions support profitability even in a low crude pricing environment.

ExxonMobil’s resilient refining operations and conservative capital spending strategy boost its outlook. The company aims for improved earnings and cash flows without increasing capital spending. With a strong focus on returning capital to shareholders, XOM looks to maintain a competitive position in the market.

Investors should consider XOM’s long-term potential despite the current overvaluation. The stock has outperformed industry peers in the past year and has a strong balance sheet. While XOM may seem expensive now, its bright long-term outlook suggests holding onto the stock for potential future gains.

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Read more at Nasdaq: Soft Oil May Have Hurt ExxonMobil’s Q4: Bet on the Stock Now or Wait?