Sugar prices rose today, with NY world sugar #11 up +0.53% and London ICE white sugar #5 up +0.47%. The increase is due to expectations of index-related buying for annual rebalancing, with Citigroup projecting $1.2 billion inflows in sugar futures contracts over the next week.

Brazil’s strengthening real and expectations of lower future sugar supplies have pushed sugar prices higher. Safras & Mercado predicts a -3.91% drop in Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production to 41.8 MMT, with exports falling -11% y/y to 30 MMT.

India’s sugar output surged 25% y/y to 11.90 MMT in 2025-26, leading to a 2-week low in sugar prices last Friday. The India Sugar Mill Association raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, allowing for potential increased sugar exports.

The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Czarnikow raised its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT. Thailand anticipates a +5% y/y increase in sugar crop to 10.5 MMT in 2025/26.

The USDA projects record global sugar production in 2025-26, with a +4.6% y/y increase to 189.318 MMT. Global human sugar consumption is expected to rise +1.4% y/y to 177.921 MMT. Brazil’s sugar production is forecasted to reach a record 44.7 MMT, India’s to increase by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, and Thailand’s to rise by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Climb on Commodity Index Rebalancing