Sugar prices fell today, with NY sugar hitting a 1-month low and London sugar at a 2-month low. India’s sugar output rose by 21% y/y, while Brazil reported a 0.9% y/y increase in sugar production. A global sugar surplus is expected, with Covrig Analytics projecting a 4.7 MMT surplus for 2025/26.

India’s sugar output is forecasted to increase by 18.8% y/y, leading to potential boosts in sugar exports. India may permit additional sugar exports to address a supply glut, after allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season. Brazil also expects record sugar production in 2025/26.

The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.625 million MT surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Meanwhile, sugar trader Czarnikow raised its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT. Thailand forecasts a +5% y/y increase in sugar production for 2025/26.

Consulting firm Safras & Mercado projects a decrease in Brazil’s sugar production in 2026/27. The USDA forecasts a record global sugar production for 2025/26, with increased consumption and reduced ending stocks. FAS predicts growth in sugar production for Brazil, India, and Thailand for 2025/26.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Fall as Sugar Production in India Increases