U.S. President Donald Trump claimed the UK has 500 years of oil reserves in the North Sea, blaming high energy prices on lack of drilling. However, North Sea oil and gas production has declined significantly since the early 2000s, with only decades of supply left according to the North Sea Transition Authority.

WoodMac predicts that the UK may produce over 1 million boe/d from the North Sea for the last time this year due to the basin’s decline. Reduced investment, job losses, and increased imports have resulted, with the UK facing challenges from high taxes, policy uncertainty, and the Energy Profits Levy.

A new report by Wood Mackenzie outlines key themes for the North Sea upstream sector in 2026, including falling investment, M&A activity, energy transition pressures, and capital discipline. Diverging investment levels between Norway and the UK, ongoing consolidation, and new project start-ups will shape the sector’s future.

Norway and the UK are expected to see stable production levels in 2026 despite decreased investment, with new start-ups contributing to this. M&A activity will continue in the UK, while Norway focuses on efficiency and capital discipline. Exploration efforts will primarily be in Norway, with no activity in the UK in 2025.

The industry faces pressure to address climate concerns, with a focus on decarbonization and ESG metrics. Exploration activity will be concentrated in Norway, targeting high-impact prospects. Companies will prioritize efficiency and profitability in a challenging price environment, with a strong focus on capital discipline.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Wood Mackenzie Sees Sharp Pullback in UK North Sea Capex