Meta Platforms (META) stock has seen a 12% decline in the past six months and a 5% decline over the past year. Smart money traders are cautious, with put IV rising for lower strike prices but call IV also rising. The Expected Move calculator predicts META stock may trade between $617.99 and $719.99 by March 20.

The volatility skew indicates downside risk for Meta Platforms, but not as a highly probable outcome. Black-Scholes predicts META stock may trade between $618 and $720 by March 20 in 68% of cases. Using the Markov property, META stock is expected to drift between $650 and $740 over the next 10 weeks, with a peak near $705.

Over the next five weeks, probability density for META stock is likely to peak around $693. An upside target of $700 by March 20 is possible. A 695/700 bull call spread expiring March 20 presents a reasonable net debit of $215 and a potential maximum payout of 132.56% if META stock rises above $700 at expiration.

Read more at Barchart: A ‘Boring’ Posture by the Smart Money Makes Meta Platforms (META) an Intriguing Discount