Alphabet Inc. and Google present an interesting options trading opportunity for speculators. Despite recent disappointing performance, March historically yields better results. Options flow indicates negative sentiment, with a focus on downside protection. However, volatility skew suggests calm waters and lack of urgency for downside protection. A contrarian position may be worth considering.

The Expected Move calculator predicts a range of $286.45 to $325.59 for GOOG stock by March 20. This range is derived from Black-Scholes assumptions of lognormally distributed stock returns. While models provide insight, they are based on assumptions and not facts. Analysts aim to reduce uncertainty and narrow down probable outcomes.

Historically, GOOG stock underperforms in February but shows improvement in March. The average performance in February is 3.05% below parity, while March averages nearly 1% gain. Considering relaxed hedging activities by smart money, a bullish outlook for GOOG in March seems plausible. A 310/315 bull call spread expiring March 20 presents a potential trade opportunity with over 108% maximum payout.

Read more at Barchart: Calm Waters for Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) Stock Present a Tempting Options Trade