Avis Budget Group (CAR) stock has dropped 22% in the last six months and is down over 6% at the start of the year. Despite a 100% Strong Sell rating, options flow and volatility skew suggest a possible earnings surprise. Expected Move calculations project CAR between $105.55 and $135.30 by March 20.

Analyzing CAR stock through the Markov property reveals a potential range of $115 to $145 over the next 10 weeks. While no system is perfect, Markov-based analyses offer a way to narrow down uncertainty in the market. Consider a 130/140 bull call spread expiring March 20 for a potential payout of nearly 251%.

Read more at Barchart: Options Activity Shows Avis Budget (CAR) Could Be Cooking Up a Positive Earnings Surprise