From Investing.com: 2025-04-28 04:33:00

The probability of a recession in April is estimated at 72%. Figure 1 shows the recession probability based on various factors, with two false positives in the past. The prediction assumes no recession starting by March 2025. University of Michigan survey data highlights a drop in sentiment and expectations over the last six years. A new framework by Francesco Furno and Dominico Giannone aims to nowcast recession risk using macroeconomic and financial conditions, with a focus on the US and Euro Area. Their model suggests less than 10% probability of a recession in March, with updated estimates provided by Dr. Furno. Stay tuned for PMI numbers in May to judge recession likelihood.



Read more at Investing.com: Recession Now? The Message from Michigan Expectations Vs. PMI and CISS