Wall Street may face recession in 2026, as Federal Reserve Bank of New York's tool predicts

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-05-17 03:06:00

Wall Street may be overlooking the biggest catalyst for stock market movement – the U.S. economy. A predictive tool from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is painting a potentially troubling picture for the economy. While economic and stock market cycles aren’t linear, there are indicators that strongly correlate with market movements, such as the New York Fed’s recession probability tool. This tool suggests a 30.45% chance of a U.S. recession by April 2026. Historically, rising recession probabilities have been followed by economic downturns, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these indicators closely.



Read more at Yahoo Finance: This Recession Forecasting Tool Hasn’t Been Wrong Since 1966 — and It Has a Clear Message for Wall Street