What Happens When U.S. Stocks Lag Global Markets

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-04 08:00:00

In 2025, U.S. stocks are trailing global stocks, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) about breakeven while the MSCI World ACWI ex-USA Index is up over 12%. When global stocks outperform U.S. stocks through May, historically, the SPX has averaged a loss for the rest of the year. Conversely, when the SPX leads global stocks, it has shown positive returns for the remainder of the year. A recent study shows that when global stocks outperform the SPX by a significant margin, the SPX tends to outperform in the following months, with positive returns in the majority of cases.



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