When economic data quality deteriorates: Two thoughts for investors

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-08 12:21:00

Response rates for the BLS’s household surveys have been trending lower. The response rates for the BLS’s establishment surveys have also been mostly trending lower. It takes a lot of resources to conduct these surveys, and falling response rates raise concerns about the accuracy of the data. The accuracy of the data is being questioned due to declining response rates. Even when response rates were higher, results were still prone to revisions. Business and economic decisions are heavily influenced by the data collected from these surveys. Investors should consider multiple metrics and broader trends when analyzing the economy. Reported earnings from publicly traded companies are generally considered accurate and reliable. Businesses need to adapt and execute effectively in challenging economic environments. Quarterly earnings reports provide valuable information for investors. The accuracy of economic data impacts policy decisions and business activities. Policymakers rely on accurate data to make informed decisions that impact the economy. Data quality is crucial for making sound policy decisions and driving business activity. The labor market continues to show signs of growth and strength. Job openings are on the rise, indicating a demand for labor. Layoffs remain low, and hiring activity remains steady. People quitting their jobs has decreased, indicating a stable workforce. Job switchers are seeing better pay, suggesting a competitive labor market. Unemployment claims have ticked higher, but remain at levels associated with economic growth. Business investment activity has declined, which could signal slowing growth in the future. Services surveys have shown improvement, despite recent challenges. Manufacturing surveys reflect concerns about supply issues and rising prices. Gas prices are lower, providing relief to consumers. Mortgage rates have decreased, making homeownership more affordable. Office occupancy rates remain relatively low as many employees continue to work remotely. Near-term GDP growth estimates are positive, suggesting economic expansion. The Trump administration’s view on tariffs could disrupt global trade and impact the U.S. economy. Earnings remain bullish, supported by positive demand and healthy balance sheets. While the economy is healthy, growth has normalized from previous levels. There are risks and uncertainties that could impact the economy and markets. Long-term investors should expect economic recessions and bear markets as part of the investment journey. Despite challenges, the economy and markets have historically overcome obstacles over time. Long-term investing remains a resilient strategy for wealth building.



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