‘Most unloved bonds’ turn routine US auction into crucial test

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-08 15:00:00

Global investor pushback against long-term government debt is causing anticipation for a $22 billion 30-year US bond auction. Yields on long-term debt have spiked, with concerns over deficits and spending. Moody’s lowered US credit score, and fiscal trends are disturbing. The auction results will provide clues on demand and foreign participation.

The recent spike in yields may attract buyers, but long-term yields are expected to remain elevated. PGIM Fixed Income’s co-chief investment officer advises avoiding long-dated Treasuries due to political forces. A rise in yields followed strong US employment data. Swaps traders expect Fed rate cuts later this year.

Yields have been on a long-term upward path due to fiscal restraint concerns. The yield curve has steepened, and the term premium has surged. A controversial provision in the Trump-backed tax bill has raised concerns about foreign investor interest in US debt. Data on price gains and inflation could impact the curve.

Economic data this week includes measures on inflation expectations and small business optimism. The Fed calendar and auction schedule are set for the week. The outlook points to a steeper yield curve, with short-term rates potentially falling if the Fed cuts rates. Long-term issues around deficits and the dollar remain.

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