S&P 500 up for June, but concerns over Iran attacks and tariffs impacting risk

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-22 10:27:00

stock indexes closed lower on Friday but were still up for the month of June, despite ongoing concerns about tariffs and tensions in the Middle East. President Trump announced strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, causing worries over a potential broadening of the conflict. The stock market remains vulnerable to pullbacks due to uncertain tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions. Fed officials are concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth. Chairman Powell reiterated those concerns last week, while Fed governor Waller suggested that tariffs may not cause a long-term surge in inflation. The Fed also released its latest economic projections, showing forecasts of slowing GDP growth, rising unemployment, and climbing inflation rates. Investors will be closely watching upcoming economic data releases, including a fresh reading on core PCE, revised GDP estimates, and Powell’s testimony before Congress. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hold a news conference at the Pentagon, displaying an operational timeline. Stock benchmarks are up in 2025, rebounding from a tumultuous April sparked by Trump’s “liberation day.” The S&P 500’s risk-adjusted returns have been impacted by high volatility and small gains, with a year-to-date gain of 1.5%. The Cboe Volatility Index VIX rose to 20.62 but remains below April levels. Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, with potential risks including fiscal concerns in the U.S. The U.S. stock market mostly fell on Friday, with the S&P 500 declining 0.2%. Wells Fargo Investment Institute has a year-end target of 6,000 for the S&P 500, advising against taking on too much risk due to unfavorable risk-reward ratios.

Read more: S&P 500 may be up in June, but Iran attacks and tariff fears are good reasons to rethink risk