Bitcoin may face fourth consecutive summer loss while S&P 500 eyes third summer rally

From Cointelegraph

June 24, 2025 09:53 am:

Bitcoin may face a fourth consecutive summer loss in 2025. S&P 500 could have its third straight seasonal rally. From 2020-2024, S&P 500 had eight positive summers, while Bitcoin had six. Summer trends show divergence. Bitcoin’s slumps linked to crypto shocks and economic trends like China’s mining ban, halving cycles, and post-COVID inflation.

Bitcoin’s summer slump is due to crypto-native shocks and economic trends rather than seasonal patterns. In June 2020, Bitcoin dropped by 3.18% despite strong momentum. July 2020 saw global stimulus packages and near-zero interest rates boosting risk assets. The summer of 2021 started with regulatory uncertainties due to China’s crackdown on Bitcoin mining and trading.

Summer of 2022 was challenging for Bitcoin and traditional markets due to the Terra collapse, liquidity crisis, and SEC denial of Grayscale’s ETF bid. US inflation hit a 40-year high, leading to aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Big Tech earnings helped the S&P 500 rebound over 9% in July, but optimism faded in August following Powell’s speech.

In June 2023, Bitcoin saw a 12% increase due to ETF applications. S&P 500 lagged as the Fed paused rate hikes. Both ended August in the red. June 2024 saw Bitcoin dropping sharply due to weak ETF inflows and other factors. S&P 500 climbed steadily amid optimism around AI and tech stocks but slipped in August due to macro uncertainty.

July often delivers strong returns for Bitcoin following June downturns. Equities see gains as companies report Q2 earnings. August brings attention to the Fed chair’s Jackson Hole speech. Investors are also watching oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Bitcoin remains vulnerable to crypto-native shocks despite integration with traditional markets.

Read more at Cointelegraph: Bitcoin’s June Struggles Continue as S&P 500 Eyes Third Summer Rally