JPMorgan warns of 1.3% GDP growth and 40% recession risk due to tariffs

From Quiver Quantitative: 2025-06-26 00:44:00

JPMorgan analysts warn that increased U.S. tariffs could lead to stagflation, cutting GDP growth to 1.3% in 2025 from earlier forecasts of 2%. The bank sees a 40% chance of recession next year due to higher import levies hurting corporate margins and consumer spending. They project slower economic growth and rising inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s, with recession risks higher than usual.

Key points include a 40% recession probability, GDP growth lowered to 1.3%, and tariffs as the main economic drag. JPMorgan predicts lower Treasury yields and expects the dollar to weaken, benefiting exporters. Despite risks, they remain bullish on U.S. equities, especially in the tech and AI sectors.



Read more at Quiver Quantitative: JPMorgan (JPM) Sees 1.3% GDP, 40% Recession Risk