From Fortune:



At the beginning of 2023, economists and Wall Street leaders were concerned about a coming U.S. recession as the Federal Reserve rapidly hiked interest rates to fight inflation. However, instead of struggling, stocks have soared, and the economy has remained resilient. Now, many are more focused on timing the Fed’s interest rate cuts than forecasting the next recession. Investment banks’ average S&P 500 price target for 2024 is 4,850, implying a potential 2% gain by year-end. Experts are cautious after years of inflation, interest rate hikes, and rising geopolitical tensions, and are expecting a slow economic environment with slower company margins. Disagreement revolves around the timing and depth of the Fed’s interest rate cuts, with experts predicting anywhere from 3 to 5 total cuts in 2024. Many believe the days of near-zero interest rates are over, and the U.S. economy may return to pre-Global Financial Crisis norms. While some experts are bullish and predict a potential 15% gain in the S&P 500 next year, others, like JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic, are worried and believe the S&P 500 will drop 12% to 4,200 due to global growth deceleration and rising geopolitical risks. Overall, experts are cautious about 2024 and are not expecting a banner year in the stock market.



Original: Wall Street’s expecting a soft landing in 2024—but that doesn’t mean stocks will soar