Global Sugar Prices Drop as Brazil's Frost Risks Disappear

Sugar prices closed lower on Monday due to the removal of frost risks in Brazil and the early monsoon season in India. Rains in June were 9% above normal in India, with a forecast for above-normal rainfall in July.

Expectations of a global sugar surplus have led to plummeting sugar prices over the past three months. Commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season. India is expected to see a +19% y/y increase in sugar production.

Brazil and Thailand are also projected to see increases in sugar production, further contributing to the bearish outlook for sugar prices. Thailand reported a +14% y/y increase in sugar production for the 2024/25 season.

Reduced sugar production in Brazil has provided some support to sugar prices. Unica reported a -14.6% y/y decrease in Brazil’s sugar output through mid-June. The International Sugar Organization raised its global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high.

The USDA projected a record global sugar production for the 2025/26 season, with an increase in human sugar consumption. Global sugar ending stocks are forecasted to rise, indicating a tightening market.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Removal of Frost Risks in Brazil Undercut Sugar Prices