Social Security COLA for 2026: What History Suggests and What Seniors Can Expect

Social Security is a crucial source of income for many American retirees, with half of households age 65 or older relying on it for at least 50% of their income. The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is essential for seniors to keep up with rising expenses like housing and healthcare. The COLA is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures inflation. Historical data suggests that next year’s COLA could range from 2.6% to 3%, above recent forecasts of 2.5%. Seniors can anticipate a COLA in line with or slightly higher than last year’s 2.5%.

Congress established automatic COLAs for Social Security in 1975, based on inflation measured by the CPI-W. The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects CPI data monthly, with the COLA determined by the year-over-year increase in the CPI-W for the third quarter. Recent data suggests that next year’s COLA could be higher, with inflation trends indicating a potential increase. Expert forecasts range from 2.4% to 3%, with a 2.7% intermediate assumption. Seniors are advised to prepare for a COLA similar to or slightly higher than last year’s 2.5% increase.

Read more at Nasdaq.: Wondering What to Expect for Next Year’s Social Security COLA? Here’s What History Says Could Be Coming in 2026