Netflix (NFLX) Q2 2025 Earnings Preview
Earnings Date: Thursday, July 17, 2025 (After Market Close)
Current Price (as of July 12): $1,245.11
52-Week Range: $587.04 – $1,341.15
YTD Performance: +39.69%
Since Last Earnings (April 2025): +26.03%
Netflix heads into Q2 earnings with strong momentum, driven by optimism around its ad-supported tier, subscription price increases, and broader operational execution. The stock is up nearly 40% year-to-date and has surged over 26% since its last earnings release, setting a high bar for the July 17 report.
📊 Earnings Preview
Netflix is expected to post another quarter of meaningful growth, with analysts forecasting steady quarter-over-quarter improvement and strong year-over-year gains. Attention remains on monetization of its in-house ad platform, subscriber behavior post-password crackdown, and international expansion.
| Metric | Q2 2025 Estimate | Q1 2025 Actual | Q2 2024 Actual | QoQ Growth | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $7.05 | $6.61 | $4.88 | +6.7% | +44.5% |
| Revenue | $11.04B | $10.54B | $9.50B | +4.7% | +16.2% |
Analysts expect nearly 7% sequential EPS growth and more than 44% year-over-year, with revenue rising over 16% YoY.
📝 Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating / Target | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20 | Pivotal Research | Maintained | Buy (PT $1,600) | Bullish on ad-tier potential and global growth |
| Jul 2 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintained | Buy (PT $1,525) | Raised PT on pricing power and fundamentals |
| Jul 7 | Seaport Global | Downgraded | Buy → Neutral | Valuation full; awaiting execution |
| Jul 7 | Seaport Global | Downgraded | Buy → Reduce | Sees upside already priced in |
| Jul 9 | Barclays | Reiterated | Sell (PT $1,100) | Sees 14% downside risk on valuation |
| Jul 10 | Seaport Global | Downgraded | Reduce → Cautious | Defensive stance ahead of earnings |
| Jul 10 | Barclays | Maintained | Equal-Weight | Neutral rating following prior bearish view |
| Jul 10 | Pivotal Research | Maintained | Buy | Remains constructive into the report |
| Jul 10 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintained | Buy | Still bullish pre-earnings |
Sentiment Summary:
Bulls cite pricing power, ad growth, and subscriber traction. Bears argue that valuation is stretched and expectations are too high going into earnings.
⚙️ Technical Setup (as of July 12)
| Indicator | Value / Signal |
|---|---|
| Price | $1,245.11 – above key moving averages |
| 50-day SMA | $1,216.22 – support zone |
| 200-day SMA | $971.70 – long-term trend intact |
| RSI (14) | 48.4 – Neutral momentum |
| Volume | Elevated, heavier on down days |
🔻 Key Support Levels
- $1,231 – $1,220: Near-term support zone
- $1,200: Psychological support
- $1,150: Deeper retracement area
🔺 Key Resistance Levels
- $1,290: Short-term ceiling
- $1,341: 52-week high
- $1,400: Psychological breakout level
Trend Summary:
The stock remains in a strong uptrend, with short-term consolidation just below resistance. Momentum is neutral, but price action suggests traders are waiting on the earnings catalyst to decide direction.
📈 Options Market Expectations
The options market is pricing in a ±9–10% move around earnings, equivalent to a $110–$125 swing in either direction.
| Implied Move | ±9–10% |
|---|---|
| Expected Range | ~$1,140 to ~$1,350 |
| Implied Volatility | ~43% – elevated vs. historical avg |
| Recent Earnings Moves | 1.53% (Q1), 9.7% (Q4), 11.1% (Q3) |
A major beat could push NFLX above its 52-week high. A miss could test $1,200 or lower.
✅ Actionable Take
If bullish:
- Look for breakout confirmation above $1,290 with strong volume.
- Pullback entries possible at $1,231–$1,216 support.
- Target upside: $1,340, then $1,400.
If bearish or cautious:
- Watch for a clean break below $1,231 as a near-term warning.
- A move below $1,200 could open downside toward $1,150.
Options Consideration:
- Elevated IV favors premium-selling strategies.
- Directional traders may prefer vertical spreads near the $1,240–$1,290 range.
- Straddle/strangle traders are positioned for a high-volatility event.
📌 Final Word
Netflix heads into Q2 earnings with strong fundamentals and a technically solid chart — but expectations are high, and analysts are split. With options pricing in a double-digit move and technical levels tightening, Thursday’s report could trigger a meaningful breakout or breakdown. Be ready.
This report was prepared with AI assistance and is for informational purposes only — it is not trading or investment advice.