In the first half of 2025, the S&P 500 experienced high volatility due to trade policy uncertainties and the passing of the “big, beautiful bill” by President Trump. Analysts have raised year-end targets for the S&P 500, with a median forecast suggesting only 1% upside from its current level of 6,260. Tariffs imposed by Trump have increased the average tax rate on U.S. imports to its highest level since 1934, potentially rising further in the future. Despite challenges, the S&P 500 staged a significant comeback, surging more than 20% in a two-month period and hitting a record high of 6,280 in July.

Several Wall Street firms have revised their year-end targets for the S&P 500, with the median forecast at 6,300, indicating 1% upside from the current level. However, concerns remain about tariffs and deficit spending potentially impacting the bull market. The S&P 500 has shown significant gains during the current bull market, but potential aggressive tariffs could pose risks. While analysts have revised targets higher, the market may trade sideways, with downside risks related to tariffs and higher Treasury yields.

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Read more at Nasdaq: Will the Stock Market Crash or Soar in the Second Half of 2025? Wall Street Analysts Are Changing Their Answers.