Sugar prices are trading higher today, with October NY world sugar #11 up +1.78% and August London ICE white sugar #5 up +3.69%. The USDA announced no additional specialty sugar imports beyond international trade law requirements. Pakistan revised its sugar tender sharply lower to 50,000 MT due to high domestic prices.

Expectations for a sugar surplus in 2025/26 season are bearish for prices. Commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus, the largest in 8 years. India’s sugar production expected to rise by 19% y/y to 35 MMT. Brazil and Thailand also forecasted to have increased sugar production.

India’s government allowed sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing export restrictions put in place in 2023. India projected to have a lower sugar production in 2024/25 due to adverse weather conditions. Thailand’s sugar production increased by 14% y/y in 2024/25.

Brazil’s sugar production is down by -14.3% y/y to 12.249 MMT. The International Sugar Organization raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -5.47 MMT, indicating a tightening market. USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT and an increase in human sugar consumption for 2025/26.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Higher as USDA Curbs Specialty Sugar Imports