U.S. Restaurant Sales Grow, Benefit Expected for Chipotle & Domino's

The overall rise in restaurant spending, particularly in fast-casual formats, creates a supportive backdrop for Q2 earnings at Chipotle and Domino’s. However, weak foot traffic and softness in full-service dining may challenge Chipotle’s mix and margins. Domino’s could benefit from steady dine-out spending, but consumer behavior and delivery trends remain crucial. This data is just one component in evaluating upcoming earnings performance.

U.S. Restaurant Sales Snapshot (Apr–Jun 2025)

June 2025

• Total U.S. retail & food services sales: $720.1 billion
  • Up 0.6% month-over-month (MoM)
  • Up 3.9% year-over-year (YoY)
• Food services & drinking places (restaurants and bars):
  • Sales totaled $98.7 billion
  • Up 0.6% MoM from May’s $98.2 billion
  • Up 6.6% YoY
• Real (inflation-adjusted) sales growth:
  • Estimated at +2.6% YoY, marking four consecutive months of real growth above 2%

May 2025

• Restaurant/bar sales: $98.17 billion
• MoM change from April: –0.09%, showing a slight dip

April 2025

• Restaurant/bar sales: $98.27 billion
• Slightly above May, continuing a flat-to-downtrend over the two months

Q2 2025 (Apr–Jun)

• Quarterly restaurant sales: +4.1% YoY growth

🧭 Consumer Behavior & Segment Trends

• Restaurant visits:
  • +0.1% YoY growth in June — essentially flat foot traffic
• Fast-casual segment (e.g., Chipotle):
  • Trailing 4-week sales rose +1.72% YoY at end of June
• Full-service restaurants:
  • Recorded –0.46% YoY decline over same period
• Spending shift:
  • Consumers are trending toward value-based dining and fast-casual formats
  • Decline observed in upscale sit-down dining

🗓️ Upcoming Earnings: Chipotle & Domino’s

Chipotle (CMG)

• Earnings date: Wednesday, July 23, 2025 (after market close)
• Consensus estimates:
  • Revenue: $3.10–3.11 billion (≈ +4.4% YoY)
  • EPS: $0.32–$0.33, a slight YoY decline (~ –5.9%)
• Q1 2025 performance:
  • EPS: $0.29, beating consensus by $0.01
  • Revenue: $2.88 billion (+6.4% YoY)
• Analyst tone:
  • One firm raised target to $65, forecasting ~3% same-store sales growth
  • Others expect same-store sales down ~2.9% YoY

Domino’s (DPZ)

• Expected EPS: ~$3.93 (–2.5% YoY)
• Expected revenue: ~$1.14 billion (+4% YoY)
• Earnings date: Moday, July 21, 2025 (before market open)

📊 Summary Table