Trade policy uncertainty measures like the Baker-Bloom-Davis and Caldara et al. indices are elevated, prompting questions about why they aren’t even higher. Graphs show the high levels of uncertainty in trade policy. A longer time horizon context reveals the potential impact on the economy, with recession dates shaded in. Textual analyses and visual scenarios from Hatzius/Goldman Sachs provide insight into possible outcomes. The TACO phenomenon, illustrated by Richard Baldwin, offers another perspective on the sources of uncertainty in trade. The overall uncertainty in trade policy is a significant concern for the global economy.

Read more at Investing.com: Trade Uncertainty Reaches 2020s Highs as Textual Indices Warn of Deeper Fragility